James Cameron weighs in on breaking his own box office record

Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 4:12 PM Central

by John Couture

All of you Titanic fanatics out there (and I truly underestimated your number immensely), I have some bad news for you. It's no longer a question of if, but when.

I don't want to sit here and pat myself on the back for being an early believer of James Cameron's potential because those of you that are regulars will remember that I went on the record as saying that Avatar will surpass $500 million, but fall just short of The Dark Knight for third place all-time.

Oops. Of course a week later and many number crunched later, I was able to see the light. At $509 million as of today and no signs of slowing down, Avatar will surpass The Dark Knight this weekend and then it's only a matter of time before it takes over the top spot.

This weekend will most likely see little to any drop-off from last weekend's (remember last weekend was a long weekend for some people) huge numbers due to a little Golden Globes bounce. Avatar's surprising wins for Best Movie - Drama and Best Director for James Cameron.

When I jumped on board the Avatar will rule them all bandwagon, I initially pointed to Valentine's Day as the point in which it would surpass Titanic, but I'm thinking I was way off. I undersold the effect that Martin Luther King's day would have on box office receipts and I think I didn't compensate for the sheer massive amount of people that are going back to see it on IMAX.

With next weekend being the dead zone before the Super Bowl, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Avatar break Titanic's record by the end of the month. It will assuredly be the new box office champ by the end of the first week of February following the release of the Academy Awards nominations on February 2.

There were some interesting quotes this week from our readers as well.

While I agree that trying to account for inflation is simply silly. I think there is merit in calculating 'the number' to equal the number of tickets sold.

And then to compound the issue, the population in the country is FAR greater now than at the time when the 'inflation calculated' top movies were released. So I guess my point is that a smaller percentage of people are going to watch movies (and a smaller actual number on top of that) then were going in earlier times.

This would be a great thing for them to highlight, if it wasn't drowned out by a constant stream of 'record breaking gross' news always being shoved down our throats.

Maybe Hollywood really is dying. Can't say I'd be surprised, their fate is largely self inflicted from pumping out piles of trash. -- Puddledive, Gallup, NM

It doesnt matter whether or not that tickets for a movie nowadays is more than it was 25 years ago. The movie in question still has to be good enough for that many people to still want to go and see it. I seen Titanic four times in theatres, I haven't seen Avatar yet. -- Ray, Parts Unknown

Sure a number is a number but the accomplishment gets tarnished and, simply, becomes worthless when "just anybody" can do it. My average household income makes me a very rich man... if you stand it against 1920s household incomes. That is why adjustment is important to ensure an accomplishment really is one. You meet any of the kids graduating highschool recently? Tell me they just did not get pushed out to keep grad numbers up. -- Mitchell, Anaheim, CA

Your forgot to mention the pirating problems the box offices deals with now days. People who can't afford to see the movie at the IMAX chose to watch a gritty version with all of the annoyances that come with sitting in the theater behind jack in the box heads for 3 hours.

I throw myself into the IMAX going people, in fact, I've gone twice. -- Michael, Douglasville, GA

Some of these emails touched on two topics that I failed to mention last week that I think help to deflate the whole inflation number. First, there are more entertainment choices today than there were in the 1930s and 1940s. Today, not only do 5 to 10 new movies come out every week, but there's countless other entertainment options from music to sports to casinos.

While the dollar might not be worth as much today as back then, there are also more things vying for those dollars.

Also, the issue of pirating wasn't brought up. Back in those days, you had one option to see a movie. You had to go to the theater. They didn't have VCRs, DVD players or cable TV. Today, there are so many other avenues to watch a movie that sometimes people forget just how truly staggering it is to get that many people into a theater to see a movie.

And let's not forget about piracy. Many people take the illegal option and simply steal the movie.

Finally today, I thought I'd leave you with this little piece from the Los Angeles Times. In it, James Cameron addresses for the first time (that I've seen) the prospect of breaking his own box office record. Enjoy.

As always, we would love to have your feedback on this issue.