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Wanna bet? A handy cheatsheet for this weekend's Oscars

Posted Thursday, March 4, 2010 at 3:48 PM Central
Last updated Thursday, March 4, 2010 at 3:52 PM Central

by John Couture

Guess what? The Oscars are this weekend.

I know, I know. I had no idea either. A weird scheduling quirk has pushed the 2009 Academy Awards three months into the new year and with Avatar's assault (both literally and figuratively) at the box office, it just seems like less people have noticed that the year's top awards show is upon us.

You can't really compete with the Winter Olympics anyhow.

So, I was perusing various sites and looking over different projections and I think it's fair to say that while some people are predicting this ceremony simply to be Avatar coronation as "best movie ever made,"* there are plenty of people who think this year's races are wide open.

Now, I could go straight down the list and simply give you my baseless predictions on who is going to win, but what's the fun in that? And besides, who am I that you would actually take my advice when filling out your office Oscar pool?

Instead, I'll try and put the awards show in perspective in the best way I know how. So, sit back and enjoy a chuckle. These odds are for entertainment purpose only and all the rest of the legal mumble jumble that I should probably say here to protect my own backside.

  • Odds that celebrities will be wearing ribbons to support the recent earth quakes in Chile and Haiti: 2 to 1.
  • Odds that they will be blue and red: 4 to 1.
  • Odds that co-hosts Steve Martin or Alec Baldwin tie the ribbons to some sort of Democrat vs. Republican joke: Even
  • Likelihood of seeing at least one Sarah Palin using her palm to keep notes joke: 100%
  • Likelihood of seeing an appearance by Palin herself: 50%
  • Over/Under for number of speeches that will run over the allotted 45 seconds: 20 (out of 24 awards)
  • Odds that Steve Martin will ride a horse on stage at some point: 10 to 1
  • Odds that it will be followed up with an "I'm on a horse" joke: Even
  • Likelihood of seeing the "I'm on a horse" guy at the Oscars in some capacity: 90%
  • Odds that the "I'm on a horse" guy's role will be as a seat filler: Even
  • Likelihood of seeing Steve Martin in blue face ala the Na'vi in Avatar: 99.9%
  • Likelihood that James Cameron thanks ex-wife and fellow nominee Kathryn Bigelow if he wins the Best Director Oscar: 95%
  • Likelihood that Kathryn Bigelow thanks ex-husband and fellow nominee James Cameron if she wins the Best Director Oscar: 1%
  • Odds of there being a wardrobe malfunction: 25 to 1
  • Odds of said wardrobe malfunction happening to Steve Martin if it occurs: Even
  • Over/Under for number of times someone mentions that fact that there's 10, not 5, Best Picture nominees: 12
  • Over/Under for number of musical montages: 4
  • Over/Under for the number of times the word "3D" is mentioned: 25
  • Over/Under for number of times Steve Martin mentions roles or movies of his in which he wasn't nominated for an Oscar: 17
  • Odds that someone will trip and fall on the stage: 50 to 1
  • Over/Under for number of tear-filled speeches: 15
  • Over/Under for number of Lost: The Final Season commercial we see: 26
  • Likelihood that I'll get any of these right: 0.00001% - "So, you're saying that I've got a chance."
  • Drinking game: Take a drink every time someone says Avatar. Take two drinks whenever the orchestra flourishes up to cut off a winner. Finish your drink whenever any winner says some sort of variation of "This was totally unexpected" or "I'm so surprised."

What do you think of our odds? What are some of your predictions for this year's Oscars?